1st MasterYourFinance.com Gathering – 18 Oct 10
I attended the inaugural MasterYourFinance.com gathering on 18 Oct 10 at SMU Conference Hall 1. The event was generously sponsored by CMC Markets. As expected, the turnout was good and filled the 200+ seats at the conference hall.
There were 2 topics altogether, “Profiting from Different Market Conditions” by Mr Goh Jun Yi from CMC Markets and “How to Position Yourself for Year 2011” by Mr Dennis Ng from MasterYourFinance.com.
I’ll just summarise some of the key points in during the gathering.
Profiting from Different Market Conditions
Despite taking a position, Mr Goh Jun Yi gave compelling reasons why you can be bullish or bearish. Either side could happen and he mentioned to be nimble as a trader, hedged and weight your position to one side when things turn out clearer.
If you are a bear, you can
- Buy defensive stocks in sectors like utilities, healthcare and consumer staples
- Buy gold
- Buy CHF and JPY
- Buy US T-Bills and Japanese Bonds
If you are a bull, you can
- Buy stocks in financial, oil & gas, and property sectors
- Buy small to mid cap stocks
- Buy crude oil, natural gas and copper
- Buy AUD and EUR
- Buy Asian and Australian bonds
How to Position Yourself for Year 2011
Dennis on the other hand, is bullish about the market, but wary about the cliff at the end of the climb.
Much of his opinions were already captured in his MyPaper article: 6 Oct 10 Mypaper – 回顾过去展望2011年. I have translated to English for your convenience if you do not understand mandarin:
In a previous article on 2010 stock market outlook, I mentioned that STI is likely to gain around 10% to 3200 pts, and not likely to overdo the superb 100% return in 2009. True enough, the recent STI closed at 3157.50, about a 9% increment.
In the same article, I have also mentioned that most blue chips, like the 3 local banks, have limited upside in 2010. DBS started at $15 for the beginning of the year and closed at $14.36 recently. The promising were the 2nd and 3rd liner stocks like Hotel Properties and Yangzijiang. Hotel properties started at $2.35 and closed recently at $2.80, a 19% increase. Yangzijian began with $1.20 and now at $1.78, a 48% increase.
Drop in Demand for HDB Resale Flats
HDB is planning to introduce 22,000 new unts in 2011 and this in my opinion, would result in an oversupply. Hence, the demand and the price of HDB resale flats are likely to come down. With the new measures implemented on 31 Aug 10, private home owners cannot buy HDB resale flat (must sell private property within 6 months). There are about 10% private home owners in the HDB resale market. In addition, permanent residents take up 30% of the demand for resale and most of them would be put under the same restrictions if they have properties in their homeland. Hence, you would expect a drop in transactions and cash over valuations for the next 6 to 12 months.
Gold and Silver would continue the bull run
In the beginning of the year, I have emphasized that gold and silver would continue to rise in price. Gold has gain 18%, from US$1,100 to US$1,300. Silver has gained 29%, from S$17 to US$22. Relatively, silver would have more upside than gold.
Asian stocks may rise
The Fed has been printing money and flooding the market with liquidity. Some of these funds would move to the stock market, resulting in a rise in demand and price in stocks. With the weak USD and Euro, it is likely money would flow to Asia. As I speak, the Indonesia and Philippines stock markets have already made historical highs (more than the peak of 2007). I would want to warn investors that we should be cautious when the market is rising irrationally. On the contrary, investors should be prepared to sell.
Financial Crisis may repeat itself
US has been pressuring China to allow Renminbi to rise. And this may escalate into a “currency war” in 2011. What’s more worrying is the strength of US economy. If the injection of liquidity into the markets does not help US economy to recover, the loss in confidence may result in another financial crisis. Let’s hope it does not. Being retail investors, we cannot control or prevent a financial crisis from happening, but we can be prepared for it. We must protect our capital as much as possible, and after the crisis, buying stocks at depressed prices would be the best way to gain wealth.
In addition to the article, he mentioned he was none wiser to know when the crisis would be coming but according to him, it should be around end-2011 or 2012. It maybe brought about by the currency war that is slowing brewing currently, as well as the weakening US economy.
This might be the last phase of the bull run and the train may leave without you. The next run maybe in a few years time. Typically in the last phase of the bull run you will see penny stocks outperform. He quoted a funny analogy: When the high tide comes (market bull run), all types of ships (companies), be it cruise ships (good companies) or sampans (lousy companies), they all will rise. Only the submarines (incompetent companies) will remain underwater.
Dennis commended a student of his, James Tai, who applied the stock picking techniques and uncovered the undervalued Orchard Parade, and benefited the graduates and Dennis himself (me inclusive 
).
If you are interested to learn how to pick cruise ships and not submarines, and would like to catch the last train, you can register for Dennis’s workshop to learn more about it.
About the Author: Alvin
Founder of BigFatPurse.com and author of Secrets of Singapore Trading Gurus. Loves the financial market. Curious to find out what work and what doesn't work in investing.Subscribe
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Mandarin Oriental also undervalued….should have bought it at 1.60…..too slow…:(((((
ha, at first i thought Mandarin Orange. if can will buy for chinese new year.
really la….nav is 2.17….never bluff….i very selfless one…good things will share with everyone for free….
crisis at end 2011? jialat….how I position myself till 2013…..who’s the idiot who said asian markets will rise for the next decade?
sure sure, thanks for sharing. hotel stock right? its traded in USD. beware of currency exposure.
yup….traded in USD…..but the upside more than compensates for the dollar weakness…but it’s more thinly traded….
sianz la…suddenly all my frens buying porsches and maseritis….feel I should abandon my discipline and go buy one…life is short….
haha, must be making money right?
ya, occassionary you should reward yourself a bit. just a bit.
think they all made alot .. at least the maseriti guy….not like me….think i better stick to my jap car….afterall a car is to get me from point a to point b?
wow, maseriti my dream car. how much does it cost? may be your friend just showing off, bought with 100% financing.
japanese cars are good, korean one even better. better keep your profit for future use.
what do people crave for? A sports car and money to show offf?
I don’t chase after money. To me, the amount of money I make and have is just a Scorecard of my Financial Intelligence.
I do not even own a car, I live in a 5-room HDB flat. I don’t equate happiness with the type of car I drive or the type of house I live in.
Don’t chase after money. Chase (pursue) your Passion. For instance, to me learning about Finance and sharing my knowledge/experience is something I really enjoy that I will do it even if it pays me any monetary reward or not.
Life is more than just money and cars.
Live a Life of Purpose.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
To Coconut: No la….he bought it at 400K and took a loan of 100K only…this is a result of having the right job….if you job pays you one million per year….probably you don’t have to take much risks with your investment….I think I just buy a wrx…best value per horsepower car….
To Dennis: I am very glad you found your purpose in life….I agree that a car is a liability although Robert Kurosaki said using positive cash flow from his properties resulted in him owning the car for free….yes…it would be best if we can find a job that we are passionate about….unfortunately not everyone can do what they really love to do…for example not many people can have the financial knowledge and give seminars the way you do….what I advocate to everyone is to live life in moderation and to the fullest based on your ability….but I strongly believe in your words that an average singaporean can be a millionaire at 45
agreed with both.
to me not only car is a liability, my house too cos we need them both. in s’pore we only experience property price going one direction, so its good to own one or two.
but i will rather rent a house if only if i can make use of the extra capital to earn more returns than paying my rent. but its all up to individual.
The first house for dwelling is not an investment….subsequent ones can be considered as good or bad investments depending on the price you bought at….rental yields two years back was not bad….now it’s not so good….I also compare my monthly installment between taking a loan and paying rent….I wanted to buy a hdb for rental but mr mah destroyed my dreams…lol
Actually if anyone bother to read, many successful people, including Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers, Li Ka Shing, Steve Jobs, Oprah Winfrey etc, when asked for what’s the Best piece of advice they would give to anyone, said that:”Be True to Yourself, Pursue Your Passion”.
And from my own experience, I can say 100% it is true. I worked in the bank for 5 years and only discovered my “passion” and “Personal Life Mission” in 1998. I took 2 years to prepare in terms of savings and also took up some courses, before I resigned in year 2000 to pursue my passion.
No, each person might have a different passion, you don’t have to “be like me”.
Imagine since most of us work in one way or another, whether for someone or in our own business, why not choose a “work” (vocation) that you are Passionate about.
What’s your passion? The answer lies within, not without (out there).
Yes, a house we stay in is NOT an investment, it is just a Personal Use Asset, don’t confuse that with an investment property.
I took 15 years to reach my first million, but from year 2008 till now, in less than 2 years, now I just reached S$1.9 million, and possibly can reach S$2 million, (2nd million in 2 years), at age 41 this year. I’m sharing this with the intention to “inspire and encourage”, not to boast.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
It will be good to pursue your passion. Especially if the passion bring in the bread and butter, with lots of jam. Unfortunately, in Singapore, where the standard of living is high, it may not be financially practical. Imagine you go to a third world country to volunteer as your passion, you may return to find even the HDB out of your reach just in a few years.
Over the years, the standard of living has gone up tremendously. Relatives and friends who have 2 properties have easily become milionaires, often the first being a HDB. If you are a millionaire living amongst billionaires, you will not be happy if you keep comparing. I used to complain to my parents that my secondary sch classmates wore expensive shoes while I only could afford an imitation asics, probably made in China. Until one day, I witnessed a mother carrying a child my age with deformed feet. Walk the middle path, for the rich kid who flies the remote controlled aeroplane may not learn to enjoy the thrills of flying a self-made kite. Work towards financial freedom but don’t aim to become filthy rich. If you lose the thrill of making financial plans, you may even feel nothing after losing millions in a casino. Spend quality time with your loved ones, it may not be a passion but it certainly gives you a meaning in life.
if one is good in singing, he ought to show how good he is so people can enjoy listening.
if one is good in painting, he need to exhibit his arts so people can appreciate and buy for collection (otherwise he will have to eat his own painting to survive)
if tiger woods is good in golf, he needs to compete.
if a trader is good, he can quietly making his own living or show how good he is and attract more funds.
thats the way it is. what else can a trader talk about? mountain climbing?
oh i forgot about dennis, what else can a trader and investor talk about? mountain climbing?
just think about it, all the successful people have shared that the BEST advice they can give is to “pursue your passion.” All the Successful people are passionate about different things, however they Trace their Success to them Pursuing their Passion, that’s why they can achieve Excellence in their area of work.
Of course our family is important, however, if a person just think about Living for himself/herself and the family, there is only so much he/she can contribute to the society as a whole.
When you’re excellent in what you do, typically the money comes in naturally, so you don’t need to worry about Survival. People who just focus on Survival rarely ever achieve any excellence in anything they do.
Think about it.
Think again and again why ALL Successful people advise people to pursue their passion? Becos they trace their Success to them pursuing their Passion.
You can don’t believe it, but after becoming financially free in year 2008, I no longer live for just myself and my family, I’ve been trying to do more for my Passion, which is to help educate and empower more people to master their finances and become financially free.
This is My passion, but anyone else can have a different passion than mine.
When you’re passionate about something, just the “doing the thing” itself is the Biggest reward, you actually do not Focus on getting any other reward, but typically the money just flow in naturally, as I mention, once you’re good at what you’re doing.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Very sensible and good advice from Dennis, Coconut and Raymond, i keep wondering what is my passion….what if my passion is gallivating, cheonging ktvs and lazing around….sigh….or my passion is making money….if my passion is making money how should i pursue it….the very fact we are here is that we are passionate about financial planning, investing or trading rite….so the question is how to make money in a reasonably stable and short time…
To make money in a reasonably stable manner, you need to invest in properties.
However, never go in with a “short time” mindset because you need to minimise risks. You can be very rich for sure in the long term, just how rich you want to be.
Anyone attended Andy Ong’s property investment course? I went for the free introductory seminar. Impressed with the millions he claimed to have made and I believed he made with many co-investors but I did not sign up. I am a contented person already.
Hi chemmie,
your reply just reflects the kind of person you are. Quote: what if my passion is gallivating, cheonging ktvs and lazing around.”
Don’t chase after money. Guess you didn’t really “grasp” the Truth. Read and re-read until you can grasp the truth. Otherwise, you might continue to find yourself “wanting to make money” but not making much, and wonder why.
I said in the last posting:
When you’re excellent in what you do, typically the money comes in naturally, so you don’t need to worry about Survival. People who just focus on Survival rarely ever achieve any excellence in anything they do.
Think about it.
Thanks Dennis for the words of wisdom….I guess I am just not wise and mature enough yet….but I am still a very discipline person….setting aside at least 15% aside each month into investments since I had already set aside easily 2 years of emergency fund for myside and housing expenses….
As to Raymond…I had a fren who attended Andy Ong’s introductory seminar who is also impressed….I believe properties made great investments too….the issues now is which segment and the high downpayment required in Singapore for property investments…it’s 30% for both residential and commerical now…this means you need to fork out more than 300K for a one million property which is the norm now….the huge capital outlay plus the prevailing taxes don’t make it appealing at the momemt….if you had not invested in the past few years….you likely miss the boat….of course we can say there are good opportunities in GCBs and high end…but how many of us can afford a 20million property…even if you buy a 1 million property…rental is around 3000 to 3500….yields at 3% is not compelling at the moment……just 2 years ago I invested in a property at 560K and achieve 5% yield!…I think the only posssibility is in overseas properties now….but it’s hard to manage a property so far away with different set of regulatory requirements…
Anyway back to the topic….I was at kinokuniya bookstore and flip though Robert Kurosaki’s retire young retire rich…a good conceptual and inspirational book to pursue what you want….although some of his latest comments been a tad $%^^#
Don’t chase after money. Guess you didn’t really “grasp” the Truth about Wealth and Money. Read and re-read until you can grasp the truth. Otherwise, you might continue to find yourself “wanting to make money” but not making much, and wonder why.
I said in the last posting:
When you’re excellent in what you do, typically the money comes in naturally, so you don’t need to worry about Survival. People who just focus on Survival rarely ever achieve any excellence in anything they do.
Think about it.
I believe Andy invest in rubber plantations and multi-million buildings now with cash from many co-investors. I prefer to invest on my own, together with my wife. Viewing properties with her ,i guess ,maybe considered my passion. Too bad HDB does not sell shop houses any more, otherwise it is something I would ask Chemmie to consider. But Robert Kiyosaki is right, if you have a business, investing in properties is much less risky. Unfortunately, most businesses may not work out successfully. Therein lies the importance of passion. All successful men always need to have passion in their work, at least initially. Unfortunately, not all passionate people may be successful in their careers. For instance, my nephew is gifted in soccer but I would advise him against pursuing his passion if he remains in Singapore. You may not agree, but in Singapore, unless your parents have already planned for your financial life and allowing you to inherit rich, it is best to be practical. If your father is Khoo Teck Puat, you can try to see if you succeed as a soccer player or pursue your other passions. Fail, never mind. You don’t need the money in the first place. Will the money flow in naturally if my nephew becomes a professional footballer? Heard of Singapore World Cup 2010?
It is a Well Known Truth that Fandi Ahmad was the First footballer in Singapore who made over S$1 million from playing football professionally. He was interviewed several years later when he shared how he lost his million through “helping” and “Investing” in different business ventures proposed by his friends.
Without Passion, most people will NOT be able to persevere when they meet with setbacks along the way. It was Passion that kept me going during the first few years Tough Years after striking out on my own in year 2000.
I’ve never Seen a Very Successful Person who is NOT very passionate or enthusiastic about what he/she does. Have you?
On the other hand, I’ve seen many people dragging themselves to work everyday, and wonder why they do NOT achieve Greater Success.
If ALL the successful People share the Same Advice of being Passionate about what you do, either they are ALL wrong or they are ALL telling you lies. Or maybe you just don’t want to think they are telling you the truth.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Before it gets heated up into a debate, let me state first that this should be a healthy exchange of ideas and there is no wrong and no right. All successful men /women must have passion but not all passionate persons are successful.
I think Dennis tends to get into heated debate because he is very passionate about his job and his views….end of the day we are all adults and should be able to deal with it….I think we are all passionate about investments and financial planning that’s why we are in this website…so just keep the comments flowing so we can learn from each other….
Btw Fandi Ahmand made his first million in soccer but lost in all in doing other businesses….he went back to being a coach because probably that’s what he’s good at….having a supportive model wife sure helps
I’m not getting heated, I just speak with Conviction, but some misinterpret as heated, it is PASSIONATE, not heated.
It is false to say no footballer can be Rich and Successful in Singapore when clearly Fandi Ahmad has already done it.
And you actually agree with me without realising, that without Passion, there is NO chance of Success.
Of course, there are people who are Passionate and not successful, probably becos they keep doing the same things and expect a different results. If you really think about it, there is NO such thing as Failure, only people who gave up. Those who didn’t, eventually succeed, provided they don’t repeat the same mistakes.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
For Whose benefit am I trying to get “this message” across? Even if none of you listen do I lose in anyway? Nothing.
So I hope people can realise the Real Intention of my sharing is to share the Truth. Like I said, “pursue your passion” is something ALL Successful People Advice, think and think and think again why.
If ALL the successful People share the Same Advice of being Passionate about what you do, either they are ALL wrong or they are ALL telling you lies. Or maybe you just don’t want to think they are telling you the truth.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
It is easy to live a Life Without Passion and Purpose. Most do.
Most just make a living, and wonder why they are NOT doing any better.
There is NO such thing as overnight success. Behind every overnight Success, are years of Toil and Struggle behind the scenes. Why these people do not find it a Toil and Struggle? Becos they are Passionate in what they do.
There is a saying it takes 10,000 hours to master anything. So Tiger Woods started learning Golf at age 2…by the time he won his First Championship, he already had close to 20 years of Practice, compared to most golf professionals who only started learning golf when they are in their teens or even 20s…
There is really NO overnight Success.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Yup…read malcolm galdwell’s book….you have to do it 15000 times before you have an unconscious compentency…..just like investment gurus like buffet and soros who have an unconcious compentency when it comes to investing or trading
It is good that we all agree that all successful people more often than not have a passion in what they do. I agree too. BUT we also need to understand that not all with passion will succeed in what they want to do.
I am a multi-millionaire and I don’t like to tell people this except to show you my situation. Not to boast or to make you take my advice. If my son wants to be a professional footballer in Singapore, I can let him try because I know I can back him up financially, even for his entire working life. However, I cannot tell my nephew to pursue the same passion because he comes from a lower middle income class. It will be irresponsible advice if I see him struggle later on in life.
There are 85000 millionaires in Singapore but millions more who are not.
Learn to pull the ropes of success from successful people and wise men who will teach you to amass the pot of gold. BUT more importantly, learn from the mistakes of the many who have failed.
For every Fandi Ahmad, there are many more Mohamads, Ah Songs and Krishnans who have tried and failed. Let’s not belittle their efforts and say that’s because they did not try other methods or keep training the same way. Know your strength but more importantly, understand your limits.
You will reach higher into the sky when you empty your cup.
so many millionaires in this website….tsktsk…puts me to shame…care to share your story raymond and give me some insights on how you made it? coconut said he did it by trading….I think it’s tough to be a millionaire by trading…wat about you raymond?
yes, we’ll be all looking forward to learning from Raymond. Hope he can start sharing with us his knowledge/experience.
Looking forward to it.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
raymond is an MM, wow my apology, agreed, we must learn from the best.
chemmie, if you make or earn more than you spend or lost, you will be an M, its just a matter of time.
It will be sad if you are willing to take advice from me just because I am a multi millionaire. In fact, I like to learn from Dennis, coconut and Chemmie but more importantly, I learn from others’ mistakes. Like many others, I made my pot of gold from properties but my advice to Chemmie is you are young and time is on your side. Your circumstances maybe different from the previous generation eg HDB does not sell you shops any more. I like to learn from coconut on collecting more gold from trading, if we ever meet. Dennis has been most inspiring and from him, i know about the existence of UK endowment policies which give 4-8% returns. My close friends and I agree that once you are financially independent, you focus on what is really important to your life eg your passion , your family, your religion. You can be a millionaire today but nothing is permanent. Singapore is doing well today but can it be prosperous forever? That also determines our fate. 2 things to note . Firstly, Mr Lee Hsien Loong did not mention at all about our plunging population during the National Day Rally. Yesterday the Law Minister said the government cannot force people to have babies. Good when the economy attracts foreigners and PRs. When the next downturn is here, they will be gone and we local Singaporeans will have to fend for ourselves. I hope MM Lee can do something about our declining birthrates in his lifetime. Second to note, if you do not discover the next PM to take over the baton from Mr Lee Hsien Loong in 10 years’ time at the next election, you’d better start worrying. Those who are millionaires by virtue of their local properties certainly will.
thanks for sharing. indeed many had made himself M investing in properties. we are very lucky including myself. as for trading, this is what i will advise to friends and family,
do not trade! unless you are really determine to be a trader. as dennis pointed, you need passion, no, burning passion! its worst than any full time job. the mental impact is more than anyone can bare. many are not prepared.
yup….I think it’s tougher now compared to last time….remember in the mid 90s my dad had so much money he said he don’t know what to do with it…everything was booming then….from all the comments I guess life is a never ending journey towards learning and fulfilment….to succeed perhaps one have to have many failures…but it’s how we learn and pick ourselves up then determines whether we will reach our pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!
Cheers!
wow chemmie, great advice. even successful trader tend to lost money time to time, its painful.
the Truth is once a person figured out How to Make Money, no matter what happens to Singapore, the person can still make money, since it is already a Global Village. Actually regardless of where a person live, whether in Singapore or a deserted island somewhere on earth, with an internet connection, a person can easily make money from the World, without even need for an office.
In my opinion, there are Enough people who can take over our PM Lee Hsien Loong, so personally I’m not really worried. And so far, I’ve not seen anything Great done or initiated by him, (I may be wrong since I have such poor memory).
The KEY thing is Singapore is shaping up as the Switzerland in Asia. Money from West, part of it have ALREADY begun shifting from Switzerland to Singapore, just look at all the Private Banks boosting up their Staff Numbers and this quite Obvious.
So as long as Singapore remains attractive to people with money, I’m not worried about foreigners abandoning Singapore. In a global financial crisis, in fact, Singapore is comparatively, a Safe Haven, so even if Financial Crisis strikes, money, and thus People, are likely to stay in Singapore
So Unless Singapore loses its Advantages, I don’t see how Singapore in 10 years’ time will be a worse place than now. Singapore is shaping up to be “the Heaven for the Rich, and Hell for the Poor. For the middleclass in Singapore, make no mistake, life will get tougher in the years ahead as Cost of Living would go up, including properties, while the Average Salary cannot go up much becos of Global Competition.
This is why I have Taken it as My Own Personal Mission to help as many people as possible to pull themselves out of Middle Class to become Rich.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
good analyst, i only worry can s’pore take the load, people and money poaring in, given that we had so many tunnel to dig.