Comments on: Illusion of Winning http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/ Wed, 08 Feb 2012 04:44:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Revisit the 2008 Financial Crisis http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-3989 Revisit the 2008 Financial Crisis Mon, 12 Sep 2011 01:07:47 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-3989 [...] evidence that it was working exceptionally well.” Talk about long term effects. This is a black swan in hiding and having the last [...] [...] evidence that it was working exceptionally well.” Talk about long term effects. This is a black swan in hiding and having the last [...]

]]> By: Dennis Ng http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-515 Dennis Ng Mon, 22 Feb 2010 02:35:12 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-515 A black swan is something unexpected. The best way to guard against the Black swan is always be Prepared for the Unexpeccted, to expect the Unexpected, to be prepared to be wrong. A black swan is something unexpected.

The best way to guard against the Black swan is always be Prepared for the Unexpeccted, to expect the Unexpected, to be prepared to be wrong.

]]> By: Dennis Ng http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-1983 Dennis Ng Mon, 22 Feb 2010 02:35:12 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-1983 A black swan is something unexpected. The best way to guard against the Black swan is always be Prepared for the Unexpeccted, to expect the Unexpected, to be prepared to be wrong. A black swan is something unexpected.

The best way to guard against the Black swan is always be Prepared for the Unexpeccted, to expect the Unexpected, to be prepared to be wrong.

]]> By: Illusion of Winning | TheFinance.sg http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-514 Illusion of Winning | TheFinance.sg Sat, 20 Feb 2010 01:04:29 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-514 [...] Victor Niederhoffer, a successful trader for 17 years, averaging 35% annual returns in 1996, went bankrupt in 1997. The illusion of winning is scary. A string of successful winnings feedback to you that you are “right”, and naturally, you do what you always do to continually reap the benefits. I do not want to be the turkey. I do not want to be misled that my farmer will feed me forever, only to find out that I am killed before christmas. I fear having a successful investment journey for 20 years and getting my capital wiped out in one single event. It is not that I am negative or fearful of the future. The point is that I know about the existence of this problem and I am trying to protect myself against it, so that I do not suffer like the turkey. In other words, I am trying to find the vulnerabilities of my investment strategy. Read more… [...] [...] Victor Niederhoffer, a successful trader for 17 years, averaging 35% annual returns in 1996, went bankrupt in 1997. The illusion of winning is scary. A string of successful winnings feedback to you that you are “right”, and naturally, you do what you always do to continually reap the benefits. I do not want to be the turkey. I do not want to be misled that my farmer will feed me forever, only to find out that I am killed before christmas. I fear having a successful investment journey for 20 years and getting my capital wiped out in one single event. It is not that I am negative or fearful of the future. The point is that I know about the existence of this problem and I am trying to protect myself against it, so that I do not suffer like the turkey. In other words, I am trying to find the vulnerabilities of my investment strategy. Read more… [...]

]]> By: Illusion of Winning | TheFinance.sg http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-1982 Illusion of Winning | TheFinance.sg Sat, 20 Feb 2010 01:04:29 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-1982 [...] Victor Niederhoffer, a successful trader for 17 years, averaging 35% annual returns in 1996, went bankrupt in 1997. The illusion of winning is scary. A string of successful winnings feedback to you that you are “right”, and naturally, you do what you always do to continually reap the benefits. I do not want to be the turkey. I do not want to be misled that my farmer will feed me forever, only to find out that I am killed before christmas. I fear having a successful investment journey for 20 years and getting my capital wiped out in one single event. It is not that I am negative or fearful of the future. The point is that I know about the existence of this problem and I am trying to protect myself against it, so that I do not suffer like the turkey. In other words, I am trying to find the vulnerabilities of my investment strategy. Read more… [...] [...] Victor Niederhoffer, a successful trader for 17 years, averaging 35% annual returns in 1996, went bankrupt in 1997. The illusion of winning is scary. A string of successful winnings feedback to you that you are “right”, and naturally, you do what you always do to continually reap the benefits. I do not want to be the turkey. I do not want to be misled that my farmer will feed me forever, only to find out that I am killed before christmas. I fear having a successful investment journey for 20 years and getting my capital wiped out in one single event. It is not that I am negative or fearful of the future. The point is that I know about the existence of this problem and I am trying to protect myself against it, so that I do not suffer like the turkey. In other words, I am trying to find the vulnerabilities of my investment strategy. Read more… [...]

]]> By: ryan http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-513 ryan Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:22:18 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-513 A bit of lesson can be learned from the discovery of Black Swan. It was discovered at the Swan River, Perth, Australia. Geographically , it's not located near the central rim. Also the area has not much of significance during the discovery. Same as risk I suppose. It has its origins at the periphery but found its life when it shifts to the central rim ie the radar or line of vision. The recent blow out with sovereigns has its origins at the periphery, and Dubai was a spark, and yet the market judiciously ignored it and stock markets went up. Risk then shifted to the central eurozone, and suddenly it was in the line of vision. Suddenly, from isolated obscurity risk under constant microscope, begins to morph. My point I guess, in handling risk , just like fishes, we need to train ourselves to have peripheral vision. A bit of lesson can be learned from the discovery of Black Swan. It was discovered at the Swan River, Perth, Australia. Geographically , it’s not located near the central rim. Also the area has not much of significance during the discovery. Same as risk I suppose. It has its origins at the periphery but found its life when it shifts to the central rim ie the radar or line of vision. The recent blow out with sovereigns has its origins at the periphery, and Dubai was a spark, and yet the market judiciously ignored it and stock markets went up. Risk then shifted to the central eurozone, and suddenly it was in the line of vision. Suddenly, from isolated obscurity risk under constant microscope, begins to morph. My point I guess, in handling risk , just like fishes, we need to train ourselves to have peripheral vision.

]]> By: ryan http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-1981 ryan Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:22:18 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-1981 A bit of lesson can be learned from the discovery of Black Swan. It was discovered at the Swan River, Perth, Australia. Geographically , it's not located near the central rim. Also the area has not much of significance during the discovery. Same as risk I suppose. It has its origins at the periphery but found its life when it shifts to the central rim ie the radar or line of vision. The recent blow out with sovereigns has its origins at the periphery, and Dubai was a spark, and yet the market judiciously ignored it and stock markets went up. Risk then shifted to the central eurozone, and suddenly it was in the line of vision. Suddenly, from isolated obscurity risk under constant microscope, begins to morph. My point I guess, in handling risk , just like fishes, we need to train ourselves to have peripheral vision. A bit of lesson can be learned from the discovery of Black Swan. It was discovered at the Swan River, Perth, Australia. Geographically , it’s not located near the central rim. Also the area has not much of significance during the discovery. Same as risk I suppose. It has its origins at the periphery but found its life when it shifts to the central rim ie the radar or line of vision. The recent blow out with sovereigns has its origins at the periphery, and Dubai was a spark, and yet the market judiciously ignored it and stock markets went up. Risk then shifted to the central eurozone, and suddenly it was in the line of vision. Suddenly, from isolated obscurity risk under constant microscope, begins to morph. My point I guess, in handling risk , just like fishes, we need to train ourselves to have peripheral vision.

]]> By: Alvin http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-512 Alvin Wed, 17 Feb 2010 11:20:39 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-512 Forex Educator - I agree with you. Position sizing and cutting loss are important protective measures against black swans. Dennis - I agree with your question no.2. As long as we make sure we can afford to lose, we will not be financially jeopardised. Forex Educator – I agree with you. Position sizing and cutting loss are important protective measures against black swans.

Dennis – I agree with your question no.2. As long as we make sure we can afford to lose, we will not be financially jeopardised.

]]> By: Alvin http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/illusion-of-winning/#comment-1980 Alvin Wed, 17 Feb 2010 11:20:39 +0000 http://www.bigfatpurse.com/?p=2195#comment-1980 Forex Educator - I agree with you. Position sizing and cutting loss are important protective measures against black swans. Dennis - I agree with your question no.2. As long as we make sure we can afford to lose, we will not be financially jeopardised. Forex Educator – I agree with you. Position sizing and cutting loss are important protective measures against black swans.

Dennis – I agree with your question no.2. As long as we make sure we can afford to lose, we will not be financially jeopardised.

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