Comments on: SMRT – Fundamental Analysis

By: La papillion

La papillion — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 08:49:57 +0000

Hi alvin,

There is a potential class A bearish divergence happening on weekly. It might take some time to unravel since the time frame is weekly. Keyword is potential. It might fizzle out.

I’m waiting for it to go long again.

By: Alvin

Alvin — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:17:46 +0000

True. It survived the 07 crash pretty well.

By: ryan

ryan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:22:26 +0000

No divergence man. This stock is in a multi week bull cycle. of course, slowly lah, if you know mrt trades. this is one of those fortified stocks. 2008 hardly made a dent on the stk. in fact it just broke out from 2007 high.
whether you realised it or not, smrt is an environmental theme. public transport get enhanced, more people use mrt (also shift from bus to mrt, tks to circle line), carbon footprint per capita drop. thus the urgency to complete the circle lines. its a stk you buy and keep in the vault.

By: Alvin

Alvin — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:49:16 +0000

Is there divergence? I don see any. Please enlighten :)

By: La papillion

La papillion — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:03:57 +0000

Hello,

Do take a look at the weekly chart for smrt. Using Elder’s system of divergence, did you see anything?

By: Alvin

Alvin — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:20:30 +0000

I agree with you Ryan that there must be some projection of earnings.

The difficulty is to make good enough guesswork that is close enough. This is the risk of uncertainty of the future that makes investment profitable.

Hope you are right that circle line will be very much profitable!

By: ryan

ryan — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:51:10 +0000

Hi Alvin,
Correct, circle line is not opened yet. However, part of it is opened , which connects not only the circle line to northsouth line through Bishan station but also , the opened section connects the 2 lines to the northeast line. Thats why theres lots more human traffic in bishan station. This part of revenue was captured in the last qtr and it was meaningful number. These is good ‘investigative clue’ in fundamental analysis, every tiny detail counts particularly those that leads to a bigger picture. Because quite frankly, by the time the circle line is opened, and by the time everyone can see it for themselves, the analysts in town would probably have it in their spreadsheets and report out in the market, and buying then, would have been behind the curve. Fundamentalist work involves investigative work as well. Books dont teach this kinda lessons.

By: SMRT – Fundamental Analysis | TheFinance.sg

SMRT – Fundamental Analysis | TheFinance.sg — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 01:02:15 +0000

[...] SMRT is a major transport service operator in Singapore. Operating the Mass Rapid Transit system except the Northeast Line. Her main competitor is Comfort DelGro. New competitors will have big resistance entering into the rail service as the railway tracks, tunnels and stations are expensive to replicate. This will give SMRT an undeterred edge and continue to prosper through her daily operations. Read more… [...]

By: Alvin

Alvin — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:58:42 +0000

Hi Ryan, you may be right but I would doubt that the circle line will have shown it’s earnings in the latest quarter report. This is because the line is not in operation yet. In this post, I was just trying to demonstrate how to carry out a fundamental analysis on a stock.

By: ryan

ryan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:42:48 +0000

perhaps you wanna take a closer look at the last quarter result and get a feel of the impact of partial opening of circle line has on its overall revenue. if im not wrong, it was meaningful. the full opening of circle line will bring a large swing into their coffers.