T3B System
This is my first gathering after my graduation from T3B course a year ago. I must say I have learned a lot in terms of trading and shorting counters from the course. 100% gain was satisfying for the first year (though many coursemates could manage greater returns). Nonetheless, I was looking forward to this gathering which Keane has much more information and knowledge to impart to us. Note: we paid nothing to attend and it was Keane who paid for the venue rental out of his own pocket. T3B really have great “after sales service support” with their continual mentoring through an online forum as well as face to face sessions.
Rain started pouring an hour before the start of the session and I thought the attendance will be affected. To my surprise, the rain did not dampen the eagerness of the attendees to listen to what Keane has for us.
Keane began with a harsh reminder to attendees who failed to take advantage of the recent stock market crash which was comparable to that of the Great Depression. He mentioned that the “best bear” is over but shorting is still an important skill as there are “at least 2 corrections in a bull run”. He wanted us to reflect on the mistakes that we have made throughout the past year and why our trading has not been successful as what it should be. Be it that we have not been following the rules, or not taking actions, or even taking too much actions; we ought to reflect on our trading behavior.
To trade successfully using the T3B system, he stated the 3 qualities to dream big!
1) Conviction – we must have faith in the system and believe it will work. The moment we second guess the system, we will find it hard to follow the rules, and it become a self fulfilling prophecy that it will not work.
2) Courage – Following rules properly and cutting losses require courage. Never stop trading despite a few losing trades also requires courage.
3) Confidence – We must have confidence in the expectancy of the system. Confident that as long we follow the rules and keep trading, the expectancy will be positive and result in profits.
Current Market Conditions
I could feel Keane’s excitement at the current opportunity and he wants us to be ready for it. He does not know whether the Singapore market has really bottom out, and was wary it might be a W-shaped recovery. Nonetheless, he believed that STI will not go below the low of 1455. Coupled with the affirmation from Coppock Curve, STI may move on to the previous high of 3900. At current level of 1800, he feels that we have nothing to lose even if it drops 350 points to 1455. Hence, we have more upside probability than going downside.
Apart from the comments on STI, he was actually more bullish about China companies listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The main reason was that China has the best economic stimulus package in the world in reaction to the recession. He elaborated that the package involves empowering the Chinese population with subsidies which “force” them to purchase goods and services. The large Chinese population will be able to consume enough to sustain the growth of the Chinese economy throughout this difficult time. It has been evident in the stock market that these Chinese companies have began their run.
Sharing Fundamental Analysis
As a technical trader, I did not expect him to do fundamental analysis. At this depressed market, he believes this is an opportunity to take advantage of. Warying of the collapse of big companies like Lehman Brothers, he is more inclined to local companies with government backing. He has 3 rules to evaluate companies’ fundamentals:
1) (profit growth) must be consistent and predictable
2) company must have competitive advantage for a long period
3) the product must be simple and never be obselete
One good example is SMRT where it satisfies all 3 criteria – 1) its profits have been growing steadily despite the downtrend. 2) The local MRT market is considered monopoly, if not at least obligopoly. 3) Everyone still needs to commute during an economic downturn. In fact, more may sell cars and take public transport.
He added that companies should have debt gearing ratio less than 10 to lower the chance of insolvency.
The strategy to adopt is to find value-growth stocks with buffering dividend yield. Value = after the downturn, many stock prices have dropped below from what the companies are worth. Growth = companies are still able to expand and grow their business in such economic conditions. Buffering dividends yield = 4% dividends yield is a reasonable expectation. If we are to enter now and the market goes further down to 1455, it would mean a 20% decrease. However, a 4% dividend yield will soften the impact and make it up in 5 years even if the fundamentally sound company has zero growth (which is unlikely).
He also advised that one should have substantial capital to do such fundamental investing, otherwise, T3B trading should take precedence for higher profits.
It’s not all about money
I could feel the Keane’s sincerity to bring every T3B graduate onboard his ship and sail towards the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. He does not wish to leave anyone behind. He told us he gains by sharing his thoughts. He believes by giving more, he receives more. It just reminded me of Zig Ziglar’s famous phrase, “You can get everything in life you want if you will just help enough other people get what they want.”
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this guy must be working for T3B?if not he must be anther joker who lost money using the system or dare not face the fact. T3B had misuse testimonial, which they know their student no longer using the stupid system. and many are using internet marketing style promote the course which is totally useless. i wonder how can we complain to MAS for such thing?
I just want to clarify I have no working relation with T3B and I am just an ex-student of the course. Secondly, I believe in honesty and whatever figures, returns reported are true. If I made a loss, I will report accordingly.
If you have been unsuccessful in trading, then I believe it does not work for you, regardless what system you use. You would have to find another investment style that suits you or even stay out of the market altogether so as to prevent yourself from an emotional roller coaster ride.
If you have not even use T3B, I think it is unfair for you to accuse the system does not work. Trading is about mind, method and money, as quoted from Dr Alexander Elder. T3B is about method and money management, which only form two-thirds of the equation. You still require to condition your mind, or your psychology to make the method work.
It is easy to blame on other things in life when things go wrong. We have often failed to realize how we play a part in it.
Hi,
I’ve attended the preview of T3B course and I’ve to say that the presenter is very impressive. However, I’m still thinking whether to sign it up or not. Well it is not that I’m sceptical about T3B trading course, however I’m thinking whether it is worth paying a high course fee to learn something that I can learn from trading books or even from internet. I actually had this experience of paying for a $5K option trading course (I will not mentioned which seminar), later to realised that I can actually learn all this from going to Borders or MPH bookstores and pick up a book on Option Trading. A few Option trading books cost me $100 – $200, so I kind of feel short changed.
Having said the above, I’m not against those people teaching trading seminar(sometimes I wonder if they make so much money with their system, why bother to teach others to make money, also we had a case of dishonest trading teacher in Clemen Chiang). I just want to be sure I’m not short changed again in paying high course fee and learn something that I can get it from other cheaper resources.
Being a past student of T3B, perhaps you can enlighten me that it is worth to attend the course. I appreciate your time to share with me.
I wish you good health and properous future.
Thank you.
Thanks KS. Sorry to hear about your misfortune. It must be a once bitten twice shy feeling after being cheated.
With regard to buying books and self learn, I believe you can do that. But it is a much bigger hurdle to cross than using a system that is readily available. There are also alot of crap books out there and mostly just touched on technical indicators. Trading must be a SYSTEM. It must combine complimentary indicators into one system to evaluate trading opportunities. It takes someone time and effort to research what combination is workable and you will need to simulate and test the system. Fine tuning the time frame for your indicators is necessary too. Hence, I would say self learning is possible, but it really takes alot of effort.
Maybe you can start by working on or refining your options trading system to suit your trading style, instead of venturing into a new trading system.
I used to have thoughts about people teaching trading. If it is profitable, why teach it to others? I realized that there is a psychological limits to trading in each individual. For example, I may only be able to trade with a capital of $100,000 without any emotion getting in my trading decisions. Even though the system is effective, I am actually the limiting factor. Hence, I can only earn more money by teaching others. Well, at least this is my view.
Hi Alvin,
I was researching T3B and I come across ur blog site. I know is a little long time ago but i guess is good coz then u can share more of ur expereince. I believe u r in SG, no ? I attended the preview in KL. Presenter not exactly impressive. But I was attracted to systems/tools & methodology.
I understand Keane now do not teach anymore. Do you know who else is their trainer ? are they high calibre ? would you be able to share the agenda of the training ? were you trading before t3b ? How about the support & mentor systems ?
Hope i will hear from you.
Yes, I am in SG. If I am not wrong, Keane is still teaching in SG. You may consider coming here to learn under him.
I was not exposed to any trading system before T3B. As for support and mentor-ship, there is a forum and weekly mentor sessions for students to clarify their doubts.
Hi
I am a completely newbie and have attended options trading course many years ago and gave up. I read about McWilliam too and she is currently holding free 2 hr course to “entice” you to join the 3 day courses for a very high fee (HKD38k!).
I just would like to know if T3B is worth attending and how much are their fees. Has anyone been to T3B course in HK and truly believes the method taught does work, give or take a few losses here and there, that is to be expected. I just want to know if the strategies and methods taught really work.
Any advice will be greatly appreciated!
Thanks
KT
Hi Kuen Tao, I am not sure if T3B holds courses in HK.
The strategies alone wont work. It needs you together with the system to work. Before you think of trading, my advice is that you should find out more about yourself and what trading is about. Are you suitable to trade? If you are not, it will not work even if you have the best trading system in the world.
What I can say is that there are people who succeeded with the T3B system and there are many more who did not. So answering the question that I posed to you is of utmost importance.